The Long View: A Polemic

Like most pithy quotations, this one by economist John Maynard Keynes is often misrepresented in the careless attempt to lend credence to an argument by attaching to it a seemingly relevant adage from a well respected source. It is all too frequently called upon in financial circles to justify short-term thinking despite the fact that Keynes never intended for his remark to serve such narrow interests. In context, Keynes's quote is meant sardonically to illustrate the ambiguity of the term 'long run' when no time limit is specified. Classical economists were fond of making the claim that all problems would work themselves out given enough time for the market to run its natural course. Keynes made his remark to illustrate the silliness of those claims when taken to their logical conclusion.

Thus every conceited financial analyst who mockingly abuses this quote to further their own short-sighted aims is doing a great disservice both to themselves and to Keynes--among the minority who can successfully attribute the quote, are not foolish enough to try to pass it off as their own words of wisdom, and can pronounce its author's name correctly. But such abuse is not necessarily confined to economic matters, it can be just as recklessly employed in any situation where the ignorant or inept are unable or unwilling to think about long-term outcomes. It is against all such short-sighted, self-serving thinking which leads to the neglect of the long run that the present polemic is directed.

To take the long view--the truly long view--leads inescapably to a small set of simple logical axioms. First, and in the broadest sense, is the fact that humanity faces one of two possible outcomes: extinction or evolution. We must do everything we can to avoid the first option and promote the second. Our intellectual capacities offer us an historically unprecedented means to circumvent extinction by natural selection or catastrophe. However, the very same intelligence that allows us this power and distinguishes us from all other living things in the world's history, introduces the prospect of extinction by self-genocide. Thus, to avoid extinction we must continue to expand our intellectual knowledge while very carefully monitoring its application.

Technically, it is not possible to promote evolution. The two outcomes are mutually exclusive: either we will evolve or we will die out. Therefore, to promote evolution simply means to provide an environment in which we can, as a species, avoid extinction. This is not a guarantee--nothing we do can provide eternal security against extinction--but it is clearly the only rational goal. Anything else ensures a zero probability of survival.

Our potential sources of doom are twofold: natural and self-generated. While there are endless natural ways in which our species can come to an end, the possibilities can be classed into two general categories: gradual (natural selection) and sudden (catastrophic event). Again, although there are no guarantees, we must lower the probability that either gradual processes or sudden events (which are really processes themselves) will kill us all. This means finding a way to ensure that our species is adaptive enough to be fit to survive in its environment and doing everything we can to fully comprehend the natural forces at work on our own planet and beyond. Finally, we must vigilantly remind ourselves that the unique opportunity to shape our own destiny has also granted us the power to remand everything we know into oblivion. We are charged with the complicated task of caring for a beautiful and deadly tool.

Before continuing, it will be helpful to consider exactly what is involved in the truly long view. As humans, our minds are conditioned to operate on a time scale that is far too limited to fully comprehend what is at stake and how very trivial our existence is when viewed in light of the Grand Scheme of Things. Our planet was born 4.6 billion years ago and it is estimated that it will die--consumed by the sun's transition into a red giant--in another 5 billion years. So, the Earth is middle-aged. Allowing for a generous human life span of 80 years, this means that one day in the life of the personified Earth is 328,000 years to us. 13,700 years pass for us, while the Earth experiences the same passing of time as one hour. The average human is born, lives, and dies, in under 20 seconds of the Earth's time. It has been a year and ten months since the Earth was cured of its dinosaur infestation. Ever since then things have been really quiet--until today.

When Earth woke up this morning--not even four hours ago--a small contingent of homo sapiens had managed to shape stone into spearheads. Some of them drew pretty pictures on cave walls. But for the most part, they blended in with all the other parasites and did not cause much trouble. Suddenly, there was a dramatic flare up. 22 minutes ago these humans figured out how to forge bronze, and it was all downhill from there.

Consider what life for our species was like 50,000 years ago compared to what is happening today. Now consider where all the possible avenues of evolution could take us 50,000 years into the future. Finally, consider the fact that all this happens in one eight-hour workday for our friend Earth.

If the above metaphoric accounting of time has not produced a sufficiently humbling effect, then do consider Percy Bysshe Shelley's poem Ozymandias.

The poem concerns the legacy of an Egyptian pharaoh, whose monument to power and immortality was found half-buried in the shifting desert sands, a mockery of humanity's hubris and egotism. The great king Ozymandias died around 300 B.C.E. which was about ten minutes ago by the Earth's watch. And Shelley wrote the poem in 1818, a mere 49 seconds ago.